The Auto Writer

Throughout the day, I get any number of press releases, bulletins, special reports, news items, you name it from car companies, suppliers, aftermarket firms, or anyone else with ties to the auto industry. Much of this information is stuff that eventually gets posted by a news service online or is taken and turned into a story by a crack reporter.

Rifling through my stack of stuff yesterday, I came across a report from The Conference Board, a not-for-profit organization that issues reports, policy statements and measures trends in the world of business. Not exactly stuff that makes for stimulating dining room table conversation and most certainly not light reading — trust me on that one!

But, if I’m patient enough I can glean something interesting from these reports and perhaps find related commentary online about something they have published.

Well, it was my good fortune that Automotive News published an article on Wednesday titled, “More consumers ready to buy cars, data show,” which was in direct response to a report from this very same organization, The Conference Board. Thankfully, someone on Automotive News’ staff read the entire report, saving me from that hum drum and possibly preserving my sanity in the process.

Yeah, right.

Anyway, without going into the report or the article in great deal — are you still with me? — The Conference Board’s most recent consumer confidence survey revealed that 5.3% of the people surveyed plan on purchasing a new car within the next six months. That figure may not sound like a lot, but it is a nice jump from the 3.8% figure for November 2008, a number that represented a 42 year low.

Naturally, the analysts are thinking that many car buyers basically shelved their plans in November and December in a bid wait out the worst of the economic downturn. If you recall, it was back in mid-September that reports surfaced on just how bad the economy was followed the next month by the financial crisis.

Lest you think I am crazy to agree with The Conference Board that car sales may actually increase in the months ahead, then you probably haven’t heard that the National Association of Realtors recently reported that new home sales jumped by 6.5% in December thanks to lower home prices and pent up demand.

That same pent up demand could very well be applied to the automobile market as consumers look to jump back in. After all, prices have been slashed, financing is easier to get and the best deals in years cannot last much longer.

Sure, there is one wild card in The Conference Board’s prediction: layoffs. Just this past week Caterpillar announced that they were slashing 20,000 jobs while countless other companies are doing the same. The auto industry is still in tatters and no one is quite sure what help the federal government will provide to auto suppliers in the months ahead.

Wishing something will happen doesn’t mean that it will happen, but based on the data as presented, we may have just about hit bottom with the current economic dowturn.