The Auto Writer

Sales for the Forester remain brisk, by far the best selling model sold by Subaru. Along with the Legacy, both models have kept Subaru close to matching last year’s sales pace.

US light vehicle retail sales for May 2009 (includes June 1st) are now final offering pretty much the usual bad news that has been routinely reported since September 2008, the same month when the financial markets collapsed and, with it, consumer confidence. But, better days are on their way if not so much in what is becoming evident, rather in that pent up demand means that consumers will eventually flock back to dealer showrooms to buy new cars.

Sales Creep Up Just Before Summer

May 2009 sales were the best seen since last summer when 964,873 units were sold. For May, 925,824 light duty vehicles were sold, down 33.7% compared to May 2008 but up by just over 106,000 units compared to April 2009. For General Motors (-29.0%), the bankrupt automaker registered its fourth consecutive month in sales increases while its chief competitor, the Ford Motor Company (-24.1%), witnessed its best month in the past year. Wounded Chrysler, which should be exiting bankruptcy this week, still registered the worse sales drop of the Big Six automakers (ie., GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Chrysler and Nissan) even though it offered the largest incentives of any manufacturer.

Yesterday, The Auto Writer singled out Ford’s effort for the month, including the stunning news that Lincoln sales actually rose by 2.4% for the month. Other strong sellers for Ford included its collective hybrid line, the F-Series pickup truck and gasoline versions of its midsize sedans.

Subaru Could Still Finish Ahead

Not all of the full line manufacturers had nasty news to report with Subaru registering the smallest drop of all at 5.0%. Last year, Subaru was the only full line manufacturer selling more cars for the year than they did in 2007, squeaking out a slight gain for 2008. To date, Subaru sales are down by just 1.8% suggesting that if any sort of recovery kicks in before the year ends, Subaru should once again see its sales rise.

Toyota (-40.7%) and Honda (-41.5%) continue to defy expectations as the two leading Japanese automakers continue to slide. In their news release discussing American Honda’s performance for the month, Honda was quick to point out that sales for May 2009 were up against the automaker’s best month ever which was May 2008. Still, Honda sold about 2700 fewer models than April even as its Big Six competitors were seeing at least a modest improvement, Chrysler included.

As for Toyota, the world’s largest automaker sold 26,000 vehicles more than April 2009, but continued to fall further behind Ford who is gradually gaining on General Motors. Not a single Toyota, Lexus or Scion model is selling as well as it did in 2008, although the all new Venza crossover may be taking some sales from other Toyota models.

Whither Suzuki?

The folks at American Suzuki (-75.1%) have to wonder what the future holds for them as the struggling automaker continues to post the worst sales declines of all full line manufacturers. It was back in July 2008 when Suzuki last registered a month over month sales increase, but with sales falling by more than seventy percent these past two months the company’s fortunes have sunk rapidly.

2006 was the first time Suzuki US car sales topped 100,000 units, a feat the automaker repeated in 2007, but at its current pace the company will be hard pressed to top 50,000 units by year end.

Tight Summer, Tough Fall?

Expect that whatever incentives automakers are using to get customers into their showrooms to continue, with variations on whatever themes prove to be successful. This is good news for the buyer who is accustomed to receiving heavy discounts off the sticker price, but remains a huge problem for manufacturers who are still trying to align production with current demand without cutting back too much in the event the market suddenly reverses course.

Source: Autodata Corp.