The Auto Writer

June is behind us, but unlike most months over the past year, US auto sales are are beginning to show that a recovery may be just starting to take hold. Sure, sales numbers are still off from 2008′s lackluster numbers and are a far cry from what was achieved in 2007, but when compared to the first five months of 2009, June looks somewhat rosy.

Of the Big Six manufacturers – GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda and Nissan – Ford led the way seeing sales falling by just 10.7% over June 2008. Ford’s success comes as the company continues to steal sales away from GM and Chrysler and as its chief Japanese competitors stumble. Thanks to having arguably the newest product line of any full line manufacturer, Ford has been able to win over customers and further separate itself over its restructuring neighbors, GM and Chrysler who saw sales fall 33.4% and 41.9% respectively.

Subaru Leads The Way

Subaru, who last year managed to sell more cars than they did in 2007, thus being the only full line manufacturer to achieve this goal was up 3.4% for the month and is now down only 0.8% for the year. With the government’s car scrappage program set to begin in the next few weeks, Subaru should enjoy continued good news for the at least the next two months.

Kia is also showing that they have the right product mix. Earlier this spring the Korean automaker introduced its boxy urban car, the Soul, and has since followed that up with the Kia Forte, a Corolla fighter that has replaced the Spectra. That car will be joined by an attractive two door version later this summer, the Forte Koup, yet another in a line of winning vehicles from Kia.

Shaking Up The Standings

For the third consecutive month Ford outsold Toyota and is now ahead of Toyota for the year. Although they are still 160,000 units behind GM, Ford sold just under 20,000 fewer vehicles than GM in June, the month that GM filed for bankruptcy. Although GM could emerge from bankruptcy as soon as this month, the automaker has cut back production significantly and continues to lose customers. The one bright light for GM is the Chevy Camaro which has been selling like hotcakes with no discounting.

By the end of this year, I believe Ford will sell more cars than GM although GM should still finish first for the year. Toyota should remain third followed by Honda, Chrysler and Nissan. Chrysler, though could tumble further if the combined Hyundai/Kia conglomerate continues to gain.

What Will CARS Bring?

The Car Allowance Rebate System will be kicking in no later than July 23rd which means that eligible consumers will be flocking to showrooms the moment it begins. If the program gets started by the middle of the month, the impact on July 2009 sales will be quite good. If so, then expect Congress and the president to agree to additional program funding, perhaps the one boost that will help the auto industry escape its current doldrums and finally recover.

See Also — May 2009 Auto Sales