The Auto Writer

2009 cannot come to an end soon enough for most people, particularly those in the automotive industry. In some ways the past two years rivaled or even exceeded anything we’ve seen since the Great Depression era, with job loss, foreclosures, and a multi-trillion dollar federal debt still looming large.

I cannot say that 2010 will be an improvement with so much still at stake and with a great deal that can still go wrong. Wars, rumors of wars, trade battles, corporate bankruptcies, consumer angst, and a host of unseen, but looming problems can wreak havoc on the automotive industry in 2010.

Big 3 Automakers

Regardless of what happens in the months and years ahead, 2009 will prove to be a pivotal one for many companies, automakers and suppliers alike. To that end, I’m offering up what I see as the hits and misses for 2009 as pertains to the Big 3 US car manufacturers:

General Motors – The calamity that is General Motors is something for the history books, what business professors will be teaching their students for many years to come. Unfortunately, this story is far from over.

No matter what you think of the company’s bankruptcy (Chrysler too) that event is over and done with. Going forward, we should all wish GM well especially if the American taxpayer wants to see the $50-60 billion lent to the automaker by the Bush and Obama administrations returned. Yes, Canadian taxpayers have a huge stake in GM as well.

But the automaker is still in tatters, desperately seeking to push forward with its four core brands—Cadillac, Buick, GMC, and Chevrolet—while freeing itself of Hummer, Saab, Saturn, and Pontiac. Dumping four brands at once isn’t easy, especially when you have dealer agreements, factories, intellectual property, and jobs at stake. The longer it takes for GM to free itself from its past, the harder it will be for the automaker to move forward.

There are some bright spots in the GM mix that need to be emphasized if the automaker has a chance at surviving. The all new Chevy Camaro dazzles, the concept Cadillac Converj wows, while the Buick line, although not as exciting as it could be, is a vast improvement of what was offered a few years ago.

Expect that the Chevy Cruze and Orlando, Buick Insignia, and whatever surprise model Cadillac shows at the upcoming Detroit auto show to bolster GM, but will customers bite? That remains the most pressing problem with GM—customer perception—something the automaker will have to improve upon if it is to thrive, let alone survive.

Chrysler – Die already! Despite being ushered through and beyond bankruptcy, what is left of Chrysler hardly appears worth saving. Still, Sergio Marchionne is the de facto savior for the smallest of the Big 3, a company who has lost half of its sales over the past two years as buyers have fled to other makes.

Quality is a huge problem for this automaker, given that it regularly finishes at or near the bottom in most major surveys including the ones that really matter: Consumer Reports and J.D. Power. Those surveys are widely read, often cited, and what customers use to determine what products to buy. When very few of your vehicles rate well, then every Jeep, Chrysler, and Dodge vehicle suffers.

Besides its Ram pickup line, there isn’t much else going in Chrysler’s favor. Their full sized cars are aged, their midsize sedans are nonfactors, and the automaker doesn’t have a true fuel efficient model that can compete. Chrysler may live a year or two before the next crisis hits, but it’ll die in 2010 if any major global event causes further strain on the automaker.

Ford – Can Ford be beat? Only if it beats itself. Ever since I personally previewed what Ford had to offer at the 2008 Los Angeles Auto Show and at my local show in early 2009, I became a believer that Ford would not only make it, but thrive.

I still believe that Ford will overtake GM as the largest seller of cars in the US. That may happen soon after the company finally sells off Volvo, a move which will allow it to concentrate on its three core brands: Lincoln, Mercury, and Ford. From top to bottom the Ford line up is solid or soon will be when the subcompact Fiesta and the next generation compact Focus hit the market.

Lincoln has vastly improved, still needing to shed its livery car image, but providing compelling new models in the form of its midsize MKZ sedan, MKT crossover, and MKS full size sedan. I believe that Lincoln is about two new models away from being a formidable player, having the right kind of mix for American luxury car buyers.

Mercury may live or it may die, but that may not matter. Still, if Ford plans to keep Mercury, then the brand will need to assume its own identity. Lincoln-Mercury dealers are happy with what Ford has done for Lincoln, but they’re still marketing aged Mercury models which are nothing but better contented, but poorly selling Ford products. Customers are confused by Mercury, Ford’s no-where brand.

It won’t take a lot to give Mercury a nice shot in the arm, especially if Ford taps its European model bin for new product. Everything coming forth from Ford Europe over the next few years will be badged as a Ford, but why not take two products and make them unique for Mercury? The S-Max and Galaxy, two crossover styled vehicles could be a good match for Mercury or even an all new model based on a current Ford platform could do.

Ford doesn’t need to sell a lot of Mercurys, but these cars should give shoppers one more reason to consider Lincoln-Mercury. Consider loyal Mercury owners as potential Lincoln buyers, a nice way to keep customers coming back for more.

Best of the Rest

Everything else assembled in the US are those models built by foreign manufacturers such as Hyundai, Toyota, and BMW, plus home grown Tesla Motors. In a few years time we’ll see other manufacturers building and selling their cars in North America including Carbon Motors, but until those makes gain some traction, all that will matter to most is how well Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler perform.

Up Next: Hits, Misses For 2009: Asian Style

Photo Credit: GM Corp.