The Auto Writer

Upon returning to my area of the world following my attending the Los Angeles Auto Show press days, several people asked me what I thought the long term prognosis of the auto industry was, particularly for America’s three major producers.

It didn’t take me long to respond by saying that Chrysler as we know it is finished; General Motors probably should file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, overhaul management, and close down excess brands; but as for Ford, well, the one shining light among the Big Three just so happens to be the Blue Oval.

This answer surprised some people who thought that GM had the best chance for survival, but I quickly countered, “Not when you are virtual no-show in Los Angeles.” True, GM did bring the Volt to L.A., along with the car’s lead designer Bob Boniface, but no new cars were revealed and the same could be said for Chrysler. Meanwhile, Mazda unveiled the Mazda3; Kia its Soul; Nissan the Cube and 370Z; the list goes on.

Ford, on the other hand, had a huge, splashy introduction for the Ford Mustang, an event held the eve of the press days, before a crowd of more than one thousand rabid enthusiasts. At the show, several Mustangs were on display, clearly getting the right amount of attention for the iconic pony car.

But, the best Ford introduction wasn’t the Lincoln MKZ nor the Mercury Milan, rather the most popular of the midsize trio, the Ford Fusion. Specifically, the introduction of the Ford Fusion Hybrid, a model that clearly shows that Ford is heading down the right path.

Even beyond the Ford Fusion Hybrid (39 mpg city), Ford has decided to take a different approach to bad times than GM and Chrysler. Chrysler really has nothing up its sleeve that can change the car maker’s direction unless you consider one of its three EV concepts as something that will really be built. Ask most anyone who hasn’t drunk the Detroit Kool-Aid and they’ll mutter “vaporware” under their breaths as they walk past the Chrysler EV exhibit.

GM – poor, pitiful GM – has curiously pulled back – delaying the introduction of the game changing Chevrolet Cruze by two months and stating emphatically (along with Chrysler) that they would run out of cash before year end. Ford, on the other hand, is going forward with several smaller, much more fuel efficient cars, and says they have enough money to carry them through 2009. Clearly, GM’s fortunes continue to decline while Ford just may have what it takes to weather the current economic crisis.

Personally, my thoughts are that if GM and Chrysler were to file for bankruptcy protection, Ford’s best option would be to follow them into bankruptcy too. This would allow Ford to break their life sucking union contracts, shut down excess plants, reduce its workforce, and put itself in a better competitive position with Toyota and Honda.

Oh, by the way, Consumer Reports says that Ford is virtually equal with Honda and Toyota in overall quality, is well ahead of General Motors, and far out of sight of Chrysler. With smart and exciting models in the mix and lousy union agreements cast to the side, I believe Ford has what it takes to survive for the long haul.

Of course, ditching Mercury would help and injecting flesh blood into Lincoln would be smart, but at the very least Ford is in a much better position than either General Motors or Chrysler at this point in the game. This doesn’t mean that Ford has no room for improvement elsewhere – they do – but pushing forward instead of retreating is the best evidence that Ford will survive its second century.