The Auto Writer

For 2008, Subaru will likely be the only full line automaker who achieved a year over year sales gain. Double digit losses were the norm for the year with some manufacturers dipping by more than 20%.

We’re down to the last ten days of 2008 and oh what a year it has been!

At the beginning of the year, who would have thought that gas prices would have surged well above its already elevated levels and sell for over $4 a gallon for several months? Even more amazing was the later retreat in prices to where gas is right now: selling for less than $1.70 a gallon nationwide.

Fluctuating gas prices have wreaked havoc on the global economy, exposing the inherent weaknesses of not quite a few automakers. Those car companies with too many gas guzzling models were stuck and suffered the biggest losses for the year. Indeed, a case could be made that the sudden downfall of GM and Chrysler can be attributed in large part to what happened this past year.

Then again, when gas prices had been selling in the $2.50 to $3.00 range for several years, why were their product lines lacking economical options? Ford made hay with its bland Focus which was in high demand, while buyers fled Chrysler for the imports as MOPAR had no models getting fuel economy over 30 mpg.

Other notables for the years include:

• German automakers BMW and Mercedes found that owning MINI and Smart respectively helped change their sales picture radically. MINI demand was up all year, as much 43% in some months thanks to its size, price and fuel economy. Smart is keeping Daimler AG sales in the positive column as it has offset a comparatively mild drop in sales for Mercedes.

• Toyota will likely experience its first loss in the 70 years it has been in business thanks to the American automotive market. One has to wonder if the company rues the day it decided to take Detroit on by building a big pickup truck like the Tundra. It, along with the Sequoia SUV, have been poor sellers as has every other big truck or SUV on the market.

• Jaguar and Land Rover have left the Ford fold and are now owned by Tata Motors. Later in the year Ford reduced its share in Mazda to 13% and the company is currently shopping Volvo. Mortgaged to the hilt, Ford is in a (comparatively) better position than its hometown rivals and could end up picking up a lot of market share thanks to a bunch of new products coming out this year and next.

• Despite receiving four billion dollars in funding from the federal government, Chrysler’s demise is nearly assured. 90% dependent on the US and Canadian car market, Chrysler doesn’t have the size or international reach that Ford and General Motors have and most likely will face liquidation beginning this Spring.

• Isuzu is no longer selling passenger vehicles in the US making a full retreat from a market that once seemed quite promising for the small, Japanese automaker.

• Subaru may end up being the only full line automotive manufacturer to actually increase its sales (and market share) in the battered domestic market for 2008. The all new Forester has sold quite well as consumers flock to smaller, much more economical multi-purpose vehicles.

• Earlier this year, Volkswagen announced that the company would once again have a US production plant, choosing the city of Chattanooga, TN over all other sites. Until the last few months, VW looked as if it, too, would see a sales increase for the year, but the automaker will probably fall short despite two new diesel models in the mix.

• Over 13 million vehicles will be sold in 2008, a drop off of at least 15% over 2007. At times, the annualized selling rate was below 11 million units, a far cry from the heady days when 17 million new passenger cars were sold stateside.

The 2008 selling season will officially end on January 2nd and, despite lower gas prices, deep incentives, and cut rate financing, December 2008 will only be a bit better than November 2008. Still, you can bet mostly everyone will be glad that the year has ended and, come what may in 2009, the worst could be behind us by next summer.